2007 MLS Draft...by the numbers...

In my opinion it is never too early for drooling over the upcoming draft. Heck, I've been looking forward to the season ending for this to start for some time now. So I decided to look at the draft by the numbers.

To start with, all of the following data is up to date as of 12-5-06 to the best of my knowledge. I am relying on 3rd Degree's draft list for help.

First off, who has the most picks in the upcoming draft?

COL 11
KC 11
LAG 11
CHI 9
FCD 8
RSL 8
CLB 7
DC 7
HOU 7
NE 7
TOR 7
CHV 6
NYRB 5

Colorado, Kansas City and LA have that distinction with 11 each. Having so many picks gives these teams a lot of leverage. They can either draft and hope to pick a winner or trade for a known quantity. Guess who will possibly be willing to give up some talent for picks...those at the bottom of the list; Chivas USA and NY Red Bull. A team like Colorado 24 players on the roster after last season. If the team max stays at 28...there aren't too many spaces for new draftees. Either the Rapids are going to trade a bunch of picks or they are going to draft a lot of players assuming a fight between the rookies and the sophomores come March for those available spots.

Next, how does each team look in terms of their highest pick?

CHI 8
CHV 7
CLB 2
COL 6
DC 11
FCD 9
HOU 13
KC 3
LAG 5
NE 12
NYRB 19
RSL 4
TOR 1

Toronto goes first for being an expansion team. Then those who didn't make the playoffs, then those who did in the order they fell out. Colorado moved up by trading with NYRB for Jean Philippe Peguero. LA got a second first rounder from Colorado in exchange for Jovan Kirovski.

This next one is very interesting to me. When will each team pick their second player?

CHI 21
CHV 46
CLB 15
COL 17
DC 24
FCD 14
HOU 26
KC 16
LAG 10
NE 25
NYRB 58
RSL 54
TOR 27

In years past we've seen a trend growing on draft day. Many of the first round picks are Generation Adidas (formerly P-40) players who have tremendous upside but don't count against the cap for a few years. The second and third round sees a lot of the top college graduate prospects and the fourth round on down becomes a crap shoot as each club selects the player they think fits best. So, I'd say Chivas USA, NYRB and RSL will have trouble finding quality in this draft without trading to move up.

Note: I am not saying a diamond in the rough will not fall out to the 5th round, but consider this...only 18 of 47 (38%) of the Supplemental Draft picks of 2006 made it through the season. Only 4 (9%) of those players made it onto the field for more than 10 matches. So, finding a diamond in the Supplemental gets very difficult. Additionally there is one more team in this year's draft competing for talent. Granted, Toronto are going to be drawn towards Canadian born players, there are no rules saying they can't draft the best American talent as trade bait.

Being as that I believe the first three rounds are the most talent rich, who has the most picks in the first three rounds?

COL 7
CLB 4
FCD 4
KC 4
LAG 4
CHI 3
DC 3
HOU 3
NE 2
TOR 2
CHV 1
NYRB 1
RSL 1

I'm pleased to say Colorado. Again, they're going to have a great chance to draft top talent early or they'll have a lot of ammunition to pull off the big draft day exchange. Chivas USA, NYRB and RSL are going to have a tough time fielding any draft classes of substance with one pick in the first three rounds.

As a Rapids fan I'm giddy over the upcoming draft. Fernando Clavijo and John Murphy have proven in both New England and Colorado they can scout talent. Last year they didn't have a lot of top picks because of previous trades but this time around they'll have a lot of fire power to draft a top class. LA and KC will have a lot of picks and 4 in the top three rounds so they should be able to put together a strong class. Columbus and Dallas won't have as many total picks, but 4 in the first three rounds gives them good odds.

Overall I think we're going to see an exciting draft next month. There will be plenty of surprising trades and once again MLS will look totally different kicking off in 2007. I can't wait!