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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

2008 MLS SuperDraft Grades...Part II...

Hello friends, Emile here. Here's the second half of our draft ratings. For the most part, our grades tended to mostly fall in a middle area around a B (grade inflation, you know). I'm personally not confident trying to proclaim which players will be successes or failures. There's not really much danger in doing so, since nobody will remember my words in a year's time, but I think there is too much guesswork in which players will get the best opportunities to succeed. Instead, we look more to trying to see how well each team formulated a plan and effectuated that plan.

In midst of the post-draft anticlimax, I want to make sure to give credit to two people who deserve it. Out of all the MLS blogs and columns, only one person correctly identified that Tony Beltran would be a high pick, and that was this blog's founder Bonji. We ended up putting him in the fifth position, but we had a suspicion he might go even higher. Remember Bonji's prognostication skills next year when you're looking for a hot tip.

Also, an anonymous poster on one of my earlier entries (players under the radar) suggested that I should have included more of the West Coast defensive crop. I didn't dismiss his ideas, but assured him that those players were more supplementary quality than SuperDraft quality. And then, almost all of them got drafted - Brennan Tennelle, Brandon McDonald, Austin Washington, Matt Hatzke. Whoever you were, I bow to your knowledge. Maybe you should be writing a draft blog instead of me.



New England
#13 Rob Valentino - D
#18 Michael Videira - M
#27 Joe Germanese - M
#41 Matt Britner - D
#55 Spencer Wadsworth - F

Bonji: C+ Valentino hasn't played much in the past year due to injury. I think he is a risky first overall pick and that is why NE drops to the C range for me. While Emile sees the upside to Valentino fully recovering, I see the downside. Additionally, Videira has made it known he plans to take a look at what kind of offers he can get in Europe. Greg Dalby all over again. Germanese did show well at the combine, but the combine can be a luck of the day type thing where performances vary player to player. Britner and Wadsworth may make the team's development squad but neither are a lock. This draft could backfire on NE.

Emile: B+ Seems like a return to the quality drafting New England is know for, after their disastrous 2006 and unusual 2007 (although so far Wells Thompson is proving me wrong). The Revs haven't gotten returns yet on their last forays into West Coast players (Willie Sims and Amaechi Igwe), which is why the Valentino pick surprised me. But it's a great choice that may have New England looking like geniuses again. When Valentino recovers from his knee injury, I think he has the talent to step right into the Parkhurst sized hole that will coming soon. The rest of the draft was more the typical Revs - take local players or players from the ACC, all from the same team if possible. The problem with loading up on so many Dookies is that they were part of discouragingly underperforming college team, unlike the past Wake players. But they were drafted in appropriate spots, and if Videira signs at some point, he could be a help (although the Revs may need too much help now to take a flier on a tough sign that early). Wadsworth was perhaps my favorite non-combine sleeper and Britner was a good value for where he was taken.

New York
#16 Eric Brunner - D
#32 Luke Sassano - D/M
#44 David Roth - M

Bonji: C Let's face it, NY wasn't going to get anyone who could save the team in this draft. We all know the talent pool was shallow. While I agree that Roth was a steal at #44, he's still got to prove he can make the jump. If Brunner does turn into a rookie starter, I'll regrade NY and give them a B. Sassano may be able to make the team, but if NY starts promoting players from the youth ranks, and signs some foreign talent, I can see him getting cut. Emile is right NY fans, if Osorio can't fix the issues in NY, then you'll be pissed you missed taking a player.

Emile: B The Red Bull draft will end up being rated based on whether or not Osorio proves to have been worth their top pick. Since that pick ended up being Nyarko, it could end up looking really bad if Osorio is another in a long line of failed New York bosses and Nyarko becomes a star. But New York made sure to get the most of their next best pick, as Brunner has a good shot at cracking their competent but unspectacular central defense pairing in a year or two. Roth was a steal at #44, fitting into a left-midfield need, but Sassano seems like a big reach at #32, even without considering his previous interest in going abroad.

Salt Lake:
#3 Tony Beltran - D/M
#14 David Horst - D
#17 Alex Nimo - M
#37 Brennan Tennelle - M

Bonji: B- RSL improved greatly this year drafting. I imagine that has all to do with the change of management. While Nimo is a long term project, they didn't take him first...or worse, first overall like Besagno a couple years ago. However, I still can't give them huge props for this class. Beltran and Horst are the two who can make an impact in '08, however many people out there don't see what made Beltran the #3 pick. MLS coaches believe the talented player will be able to make the jump to the pros, however he needed to improve greatly over his U-20 WC performance for that to happen. Horst has great size but I think he would have been available at #17 and RSL could have taken Eric Brunner who is a little younger, and I like better. We'll see.

Emile: B+ Lots of people probably thought Salt Lake's eccentric brain-trust would do something screwy, but I think Kreis and Lagerwey came out looking pretty good. Three high picks were turned into two Generation Adidas players, and two additions to their beleaguered back line. Sure, none of the pundits but Bonji thought Beltran would be a high pick, but he was apparently coveted by a number of MLS teams and should see time quickly at right back. I rated Horst above Brunner as a pure defender - he has excelled at every level he's played and gives them a physical presence on the back line that they sorely need. Nimo seems like a good gamble to me at the #17 pick, and Tennelle is a late-bloomer who might have been picked a little high, but has interesting potential at a number of positions. Overall the draft was a nice combo of long-term patience and the immediate help they need to try and sniff the playoffs in 2008.

San Jose
#15 Shea Salinas - M

Bonji: D I know San Jose wanted to get a veteran on the books but they gave up the #1 pick for Nick Garcia. Garcia is quality, but it seems like some future considerations would have gotten him since I hear KC was out shopping him hard. So SJ gets a demerit for that trade. Further, you need to stock up an expansion team with quality youth who may break out. SJ got one. Who is going to play on the reserve team? Where did all the other picks go, San Jose? In Salinas they get a talented field player who should be able to adapt to a number of positions. I'm just saying they needed to find more like him.

Emile: C- San Jose's approach to expansion is certainly a lot different than Toronto's, but given how poorly the Canadians did in 2007, that's probably a good thing. Still, coming away from the draft with only one player seems like a poor hedge for the future. I'll give them less grief for the Nick Garcia trade than I did originally, since the top of the draft ended up being unsettled. But I think it's possible that Chance Myers will be contributing almost as much as Nick Garcia by 2009 or 2010 - Kansas City fans are saying Garcia has already lost a step. The other picks they traded off were for Frank Yallop and Preston Burpo - a coach who was probably being fired anyway and a veteran goalie no longer needed. And then Salinas was taken a round too high for my tastes. Salinas did not have the type of consistent college production to suggest he can become a star MLS player. He no doubt has the physical gifts and youth to develop into a credible starter, but Quakes fans hoping for another Brian Mullan should remember that Mullan was an absolute star college player who still took several years to find his niche on the right wing. Given the other talents who were available, I think Salinas was given too much credit for looking good at the combine.

Toronto
# 9 Julius James - D
#10 Pat Phelan - D/M
#28 Brian Edwards - GK
#30 Michael Zaher - D
#35 Joe Lapira - F

Bonji: A+ For a team that needed defensive help they certainly got it. James should never have slipped this far as I still think he's one of the players who will be able to start in the first exhibition match of the pre-season. Phelan should be able to work in the back or move into the midfield while Maurice Edu plays in the Olympics. Edwards looks like he'll turn into a find keeper with some time and Michael Zaher is a steal at #30. RSL should have taken Zaher instead of Horst. Lapira will probably never play in MLS but with the #35 pick it is worth making sure the goal machine plays for you. I don't totally understand all the roster rules for Toronto FC, so it will be interesting to see how all these guys fit into their roster. That being said, I think they had the most successful draft of 2008. Add that to selecting Rookie of the Year Edu last year, and it looks like Toronto FC knows what they're doing on draft day.

Emile: A- I like every one of Toronto's picks, but I would have given them a lower grade because their Richard Mulrooney folly knocked them out of the #2 spot. However, they ended up with Julius James being available at #9 anyway - the best senior player in the draft and one of the top three overall, in my opinion. Phelan should also help, since he can slot into the defensive midfield if needed or potentially pair with James in a future central pairing that could develop into something great with TFC's young and talented outside backs. Edwards and Zaher are big-school, productive additions and Lapira was a worthwhile gamble at #35. What I don't understand with Toronto is their reluctance to take Canadian college players. Matt Britner would have made sense - given the success they had with Tyler Hemming last year, you'd think they'd make more of an effort to get the few Canadian developmental projects worth picking.

3 Comments:

  • Great work gentleman! Yours were the best, most well thought out, draft grades I found this year.

    Keep up the good work.

    By Blogger bje, at 9:12 AM  

  • Great work, though I'm a little disappointed that you two agreed so much. Where's the controversy? :-)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:10 PM  

  • Thanks for the nice comments. What can I say, we're both just so darned reasonable. We don't have to make up controversy - believe me, I have no desire to be Skip Bayless.

    By Blogger thursdayshootings, at 7:47 AM  

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