From College to the Pros - The US soccer ladder

Monday, December 31, 2007

Billy Beane is Coming To MLS...

As many if not all of you know, the San Jose Earthquakes are rejoining MLS in 2008. In the past I talked about how the addition of a new team stretches the player pool. This stretching requires more players who can perform or we'll see the level of play go down in MLS.

Seemingly in response, MLS rule makers decided to simplify and expand the international player category. Previously teams were allowed 4 Senior International (SI) players and 3 Youth International (YI) players. Now MLS clubs will be allowed 8 International players. Without the youth/senior designation it is simplified and with one more it is expanded. FC Toronto has slightly different rules since they're in Canada. In 2008 29% of MLS rosters will be International compared with 25%. That increase doesn't seem like a big deal to me and I like the fact that teams won't have to worry about youth/senior. Now they'll be able to get the best talent from around the world if the price is right.

That last comment, if the price is right, brings me to my overall point and the title of this post. Do you know who Billy Beane is? If you're a baseball fan or from the Bay Area you probably do. However, there are probably some MLS fans who have no idea. It is time to learn folks, because his mastery of the baseball salary cap and talent scouting is about to turn MLS upside down. Managers in the English Premier League are listening to him and in 2008 he becomes one of the owners of a MLS club.

While Beane won't be the General Manager of the club, he will be behind the scenes. If you read the above article the way I did, it was Beane's interest in soccer and that got the Oakland A's owner to invest in MLS. And now Beane will be working with GM John Doyle and head coach Frank Yallop to employ his famous Moneyball tactics in MLS.

The rest of MLS should be scared. The salary cap has always been a total mystery to MLS fans and a seemingly partial mystery to MLS clubs. Trades are made that make no sense until salary cap relief is mentioned or another team paying a portion of salary is leaked. While MLS doesn't have the transfer market overpayment syndrome as mentioned in the article, MLS does have management teams that don't totally grasp how salary cap affects team composition. There are those coaches who just want their good players and then there are the general managers who have to grasp contract negotiations and how that impacts who can be signed. This has been the reality in baseball for years and Billy Beane learned how to master and exploit it. I have every reason to believe Beane is going to do the same in MLS, and teams that can't keep up with the Earthquakes will quickly fall behind them in the standings.

Folks, Beane entering the MLS ushers in a new era of American soccer. This will be the era where scouting college soccer really matters, because teams are going to need to make the most of the young, cheap players to effectively use all 8 international spots. If Beane and his team can come up with effective statistics to use in college scouting, they're going to blow the doors off the rest of the league. While I don't think we'll see many results in 2008, 2009 and beyond should see the Earthquakes with one of the best rosters well controlled within the MLS Salary budget. No longer will a MLS coach be able to take a hint from a college coaching friend, they'll need the data to back it up.

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